CSE in 2014 and fundamental shares that have underperformed

Plantation rallies are usually cyclical. you may need to hold until rally comes time to time.

Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

slstock wrote:Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe  not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

and starts with C ?

Think it's LWL   

Fresher wrote:

slstock wrote:Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe  not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

and starts with C ?

One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter. Not to forget IPO price was Rs 20.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

slstock wrote:One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

@ Slstock,Any guess as with whom they will merge??

This CB policy is a bit unclear. Since 1 group can 1 fin company TFIL does not have to merge.
But then again under latest TFIL is in CAt B due to assets.

From TFIL point of view they will not want to merge with anyone weak in their best interest. So DP group, CRL, CDB all seem candiates. ( there are more)

Leon wrote:

slstock wrote:One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

@ Slstock,Any guess as with whom they will merge??

Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

Sadly my holding in this is not a lot.

COCR  is another good share , but it has already recovered 50% from bottom and  NAV is much lower compared to TFIL/PLC. Not saying COCR  can not  shoot up more  (if the players are active) . PLC is in samee category but with higher NAV of 12.

If the bull breaks  loose for any  share it will be like a "Bull in a china shop"


I still see many share that have not moved much though market has moved from 5800-6250.

Some shares may keep silent for a long time but when they move they can explode BOOM.  Some time beaten down shares can jump 10% in 10 minutes and never will see the price again.

This is where Trader might  not have time to react  or judge when to sell and buy back compared to investors who patiently hold. 

Think people should  identify more potential shares like this with reasons without worrying about ASI or market volatiity,
When their time comes,  your holding pay offs.

But people should choose what best suites them. Trading or Investing. It depends on your need, expectation, holdign power and patience.

slstock wrote:One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter.  Not to forget IPO price was Rs 20.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

 

Well Harry never learns.

Realstock/Harry  you never learn. Sometime there is only one option when people don't listen to be ethical.



I clearly mentioned to give reasons.

balapas wrote:Well Harry never learns.

?Real stock- reincarnation of Harry the clapper.

Yes, I wish he follow ethics ( to list shares with reasons without blindly mentioning share names)
But he edoesn't.

K.Haputantri wrote:?Real stock- reincarnation of Harry the clapper.

There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)


Btw on TFIl which I hinter at Rs 14 and then again stated at Rs 15-16.

By no means this is a price target to follow blindly.
So no blind following or blames games if it doesn't get there

This is just a educational calculation :

After this quarter . TFIL NAV will be about 13.

If at 2 times Book value Price will be : Rs 26

There are roughly 56.8 mil shares,

So at Rs 26 ( just for argument)
TFIL totally is worth 26*56.8 = 1.48 billion

Interestingly their Assets are at 1.405 Bil by Sept ( liabilities about 0.7 bil)

Estimated earning will be well over 150 mil this year.

I see CFL running ahead of TFIL right now with lesser book value.

If they get merged how much will be the target price for a company like this. Good question right?

Disclosure : I hold a limited quantity of this share (sadly) . Already over 60% profit so anything above Rs 20 will be bonus for me.

Oh no they heard me   

It just started to move before I could released money to buy   

slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)

TFIL hit Rs 20 today. Now we see the resistance mentioned below.

slstock wrote:Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

ALLI after a long sleep started to raise its head today with some big buying. Some big seller was trying to exit and that is why this was dragged too much down.

BTw, there is Land sector share, that can give a huge surprise if our calculations are correct. It as also mentioned in this thread by another ;-)

slstock wrote:ALLI after a long sleep started to raise its head today with some big buying. Some big seller was trying to exit and that is why this was dragged too much down.

BTw, there is Land sector share, that can give a huge surprise if our calculations are correct. It as also mentioned in this thread by another ;-)

You mean SHAW What is the prediction? are they going to sell other lands?

Traders/investors of TFIL note what I said earlier as below.

On technical grounds it would be good for TIFL to fall to Rs18-19 for couple of days.

But falling below Rs 18 might not be a good sign.

On fundamental grounds still TFIL is not overvalued on earnigns and assets.

slstock wrote: TFIL hit Rs 20 today.  Now we see the resistance mentioned below.

slstock wrote:Update :  I first hinted about TFIL  in this thread , when it was in the Rs 14s. Then again 15-16.

Traders Note:  there might be resistance around Rs 20 due to several factors.But if it crosses it with big volume ,   there can be big jumps in price.

Dec 31st results  out. You can compare  with the below comments I made.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/1102_1391677700820.pdf
 
Very good growth  during difficult times ( though a small company).

As expected annual eps will be around  Rs 3.  By March end NAV should probably be Rs 14!
( more than PLC, SFIN, COCR CFL )


If they merge, it will be in their best interest to go with a strong company
( ex:  PLC , CFIN, LFIN/VFIN,ALLI , CDB , MERC etc).

They have opened up  branch ( es ?) in the North. The potential partner might also look at that factor.

Hmm...which strong company does not have a branch in the North?

slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)


Btw on TFIl which I hinter at Rs 14 and then again stated at Rs 15-16.

By no means this is  a price target to follow blindly.
So no blind following or blames games if it doesn't get there  

This is just a educational calculation :

After this quarter . TFIL NAV  will be about 13.  

If at  2 times Book value  Price will be  : Rs 26

There are roughly 56.8 mil shares,

So at Rs 26 ( just for argument)  
TFIL totally is worth  26*56.8 = 1.48 billion

Interestingly their Assets are at 1.405  Bil by Sept ( liabilities about 0.7 bil)

Estimated earning will be well over 150 mil this year.

I see CFL running ahead of TFIL right now with lesser book value.

If they get merged  how much will be the target price  for a company like this.  Good question right?

Disclosure : I hold a limited quantity of this share (sadly) . Already over 60% profit so anything above Rs 20 will be bonus for me.

I'm holding on stocky!!! my PF looked down after TFIL dropped but I'm more confident now after seeing results. Now only to see what plans will unfold.

Can we expect a 1/= dividend this time ?

Look at last dividend of 0.91, Rs 1 or even more is a high possivility ( if march goes according to plan).

BUT, before they declared final dividend ( unless they do a special one) we don;t know what will happen to TFIL with CB requests ( merger) ?

For any potential TFIL long term investors, that why I said it is important for TFIL ( if they merge) to go with a stronger company ( also playing similar dividends).

To be frank , if you look at past few years it is amazing how TFIL managed to grow consistently.
The management seems to be very efficient. They should not get mixed up with some weak company.
( BTw, TFIL is a family owned company of the Coorays)

jonta999 wrote:Can we expect a 1/= dividend this time ?

    AB! u r more SAFER now!

lets see hw the MARKET treat TFIL tomorrow!
GL!

slstock wrote:Look at last dividend of 0.91,  Rs 1  or even more is a high possivility ( if march goes according to plan).

BUT,   before they declared final dividend ( unless they do a special one)  we don;t know what will happen to TFIL with CB requests ( merger) ?

For any potential  TFIL  long term investors, that why I said it is important for TFIL ( if they merge)  to  go with a stronger company ( also playing similar dividends).  

To be frank , if you look at past few years it is amazing how TFIL managed to grow consistently.
The management seems to be very efficient. They should not get mixed up with some weak company.
( BTw, TFIL is a family owned company of the Coorays)
 

jonta999 wrote:Can we expect a 1/= dividend this time ?

This is gr8! I couldn't enter in to it at very best level   

Though fin sector is a hot topic now, don't forget to think about the sectors ;-)

Yes kddnd happy but this might hv been expected. But lets see.

Aubrey Perera wrote:Yes kddnd happy but this might hv been expected. But lets see.

Yes I totally agree!
As I felt..
in SRI LANKA - IN CSE
these important information passed out to among closed contact people well before the time we come to know it....
so those people already act and obtained benefits of the result!

by the time we come to know the MARKET has almost adjusted to the that price level....
then mostly we just have to observe but can't have the fruit of the result!

WE ARE IN THAT TYPE OF MARKET!!!!

GL! Aubrey!

Guys, I won;t give out too much info but this share I was talking about, is trading significantly below NAV. Very less talked about share ;-).

IF/when this runs ( if market sentiments remain weak it may stay put) 40% from present price is valided by its fundamentals.

Shh.. can;t give too much info. I still have to collect when I can release money.

slstock wrote:Oh no  they heard me   

It just  started to move before I could released money to buy   

slstock wrote:There is another Share in the present hot sector which had not gain attention though counter parts have run ;-)

Incase people have not noticed RHL, is slowly improving its earings
( still expenses are eating into profits).

NAV is 50 now trading at Rs 31. If /when the players start pushing this it has lot of room to up .