CSE in 2014 and fundamental shares that have underperformed

Thanks slstock for the time and the information I like CDB X and COCO from your list

@ Intelligent Investing thanks for the tip, I like TKYO and  KAPI from your list.

(Just wish I had money to buy...  )

PS: I would like to add following
REG (which I hold) has been consistent with there quarterly performance.  
NTB and UB because considering there performance and size (due to the merger requirements that are coming).

Good to see healthy discussions. Keep them coming.

Antonym: 7000 ASI by the end of the year is a conservative estimate which I think should be possible by factors at hand presently. But we know at CSE if the bull gets out of the pen what can happen. A Bull in china shop can test previous ASI high . Like you said, maybe being too optimistic in not good. Let stick to 7000 which is 15% return on ASI. If there is anything more it will be bonus yeah yeah yeah . But I hope if ASI goes to 7000 some shares ( in my portfolio haha) will again 50% from now.

Innam : there is a share in your list I wished no one would mentioned until I can finish collecting haha

NIJINTH : Also it might be good to keep an eye on a similar share like CFVF.

Bullrun : Speculatives or fundamentals , the key is buying not at the top . Specially with specs , it may never reach that price again. Just think GREG was once Rs 250+ and PCH Rs 30+
Yes JKH is big play but there are few other shares that carry ASI index with foreign interest. But the key it find share that can beat ASI index gains right.

There will not be any major movement in VLL until the director Shangani finishes his collection. He is clearing all the sellers at 3.60.

The industry expects over production in salt industry and is planning to export the rest if possible. There are lot of players in the businuess now than few years before when RWSL started its operations.

A good discussion and some good stocks mentioned !

A well known conservative economist / market analyst who has been pessimistic on the market for some time is now bullish. his call - ASPI 7000.

some stocks to watch in 2014 are -

1. CINS (NV) - trading at significant discount to CINS voting (400 TO 1300). will (or can ) kotelawala's voting shares stake in Ciesot & Pictet & Cie be force sold to sort out golden key depositors. plenty of buyers for a big chunk of voting at Rs 1500-1700. will the gap between voting & non voting narrow ? CINS (NV) trading at trailing p/e of 4-5 times and Price to Book of 0.80 based on estimated december 2013 earnings.  

2. CIC - out of favour for some time now due to various reasons , drought, floods, non receipt of fertilizer subsidy etc. i read somewhere that subsidy issue sorted ? will CIC make a comeback ?

3. LMF - DIST gathering strenght at Rs 200 and is still a 10 p/e stock. will the Melstacorp metamorphis happen in 2014 ? LMF owns 38 mill dist shares and current NAV is Rs 250. core dairy business should do well due to expansion in capacity & non availability of milk powder (trying getting milk powder these days).

4. HEMAS - The smart money is collecting. but upside could be limited i.e. 40-45 range on fundamentals.

5. CINV & GUAR - If the market rises towards 7000 in 2014, a 15 % rise in the ASPI will translate to high beta stocks (like JKH) rising 30-40 %. CINV & GUAR have a high quality stock portfolio and cash to exploit a rising market. has underperformed due to Buki being out of favour. GUAR has approx 17 Mill Buki shares which should be worth at least Rs 1000 per share based on the intrinsic valuation of Goodhope Asia.

RENU, CFVF, LIOC, ECL have numerous reasons to outperform the market.

Hayleys & Dockyard are also sleeping giants at attractive valuations.

it also looks like it could be a good year for poultry. BFL is relatively cheap at Rs 130.

The Alchemist wrote:A good discussion and some good stocks mentioned !

A well known conservative economist / market analyst who has been pessimistic on the market for some time is now bullish. his call - ASPI 7000.

some stocks to watch in 2014 are -

1. CINS (NV) - trading at significant discount to CINS voting (400 TO 1300). will (or can ) kotelawala's voting shares stake in Ciesot & Pictet & Cie be force sold to sort out golden key depositors. plenty of buyers for a big chunk of voting at Rs 1500-1700. will the gap between voting & non voting narrow ? CINS (NV) trading at trailing p/e of 4-5 times and Price to Book of 0.80 based on estimated december 2013 earnings.  

2. CIC - out of favour for some time now due to various reasons , drought, floods, non receipt of fertilizer subsidy etc. i read somewhere that subsidy issue sorted ? will CIC make a comeback ?

3. LMF - DIST gathering strenght at Rs 200 and is still a 10 p/e stock. will the Melstacorp metamorphis happen in 2014 ? LMF owns 38 mill dist shares and current NAV is Rs 250. core dairy business should do well due to expansion in capacity & non availability of milk powder (trying getting milk powder these days).

4. HEMAS - The smart money is collecting. but upside could be limited i.e. 40-45 range on fundamentals.

5. CINV & GUAR - If the market rises towards 7000 in 2014, a 15 % rise in the ASPI will translate to high beta stocks (like JKH) rising 30-40 %. CINV & GUAR have a high quality stock portfolio and cash to exploit a rising market. has underperformed due to Buki being out of favour. GUAR has approx 17 Mill Buki shares which should be worth at least Rs 1000 per share based on the intrinsic valuation of Goodhope Asia.

RENU, CFVF, LIOC, ECL have numerous reasons to outperform the market.

Hayleys & Dockyard are also sleeping giants at attractive valuations.

it also looks like it could be a good year for poultry. BFL is relatively cheap at Rs 130.

Dear Alchemist,

I'm more comfortable with all shares mentioned you & others. But I could not find (With my limited source) any valid/strong reason for ECL than speculation. (Recently I disposed ECL & bought UBC).

Thx in advance.

Hi friends, healthy discussion, I would like to contribute my part to the forum members. Apart from the stocks that have been mentioned, I think the following stocks should also be watched in 2014.

1. LGL/ LGLX,. the company has shown phenomenal growth in revenue ans EPS. 6 months EPS has risen by 98%  to 2.30 Rs. forecast EPS to be at least RS. 4/- With PE 10, voting should trade between 40-45 in the coming months. X has traditionally traded with a gap of 8-10 Rs. Hence I prefer Non-voting within the price range of 22-23.5. due to low PE, Low PBV, possible higher Return

2. SHOT. X: the last time all the group hotels  were operational was in March 2013 QTR, where the group generated an EPS of 1.52 for qtr and 2.46. Both last qtrs  the hotels were closed for refurbishment and reported losses, since all the hotels were opened in Dec Qtr, we can expect good profits from March 14 Qtr, this would be a good  time re enter.

3.RAL. good revenue growth coupled  with milk power shortage should  provide profit growth,trading below the rights price and also  in the lowest range.

lion wrote:Hi friends, healthy discussion, I would like to contribute my part to the forum members. Apart from the stocks that have been mentioned, I think the following stocks should also be watched in 2014.

1. LGL/ LGLX,. the company has shown phenomenal growth in revenue ans EPS. 6 months EPS has risen by 98%  to 2.30 Rs. forecast EPS to be at least RS. 4/- With PE 10, voting should trade between 40-45 in the coming months. X has traditionally traded with a gap of 8-10 Rs. Hence I prefer Non-voting within the price range of 22-23.5. due to low PE, Low PBV, possible higher Return

2. SHOT. X: the last time all the group hotels  were operational was in March 2013 QTR, where the group generated an EPS of 1.52 for qtr and 2.46. Both last qtrs  the hotels were closed for refurbishment and reported losses, since all the hotels were opened in Dec Qtr, we can expect good profits from March 14 Qtr, this would be a good  time re enter.

3.RAL. good revenue growth coupled  with milk power shortage should  provide profit growth,trading below the rights price and also  in the lowest range.

Thx Lion,

For LGL, I red few news article regarding their hotel project call 'Ananthaya' ( As I remember it is Bangadeniya in Chillow). It's going to start operation from Feb 2014. It also will add some fuel to share.

Cheers...!!!!

In 2012,just before the bulls arrival we had same kind of discussion,Don't know how many of take the advantage?
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

What ever the fundamental share you hold,hold till maximum,do not go for frequent trading that only help your broker.

pathfinder wrote:In 2012,just before the bulls arrival we had same kind of discussion,Don't know how many of take the advantage?
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

What ever the fundamental share you hold,hold till maximum,do not go for frequent trading that only help your broker.

Don't you think it is better to set an exit price with a reasonable profit? If the share picks up with big volumes just wait and see.

Don't you think it is better to set an exit price with a reasonable profit? If the share picks up with big volumes just wait and see.[/quote]

I used to fellow this rule, it used to give me the reasonable profit and am happy with that method.

Gaja wrote:Don't you think it is better to set an exit price with a reasonable profit? If the share picks up with big volumes just wait and see.

I think yes we should  use a exit strategy in all case. but must not change the rule   because greed can thrash you to the ground. I too use an exit strategy because of that I survived TWOD scare   and some other ..but I am happy I took those decision to exit....  

Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running on some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

I wonder how TFC is being able to go on doing business for so long with so much negative net worth. Mind you this is after a fresh capital infusion some time back and deposit-share conversion if I remember right.

Are their investments carried at market value? Is there something hidden there?

I was more interested in the Hydro sector in the recent months. It was mentioned by various people in the forum as well as in this thread. It, however is quite dependent on the weather and something which we might be able to use to predict the earnings.
1) VPEL - largest player I believe with a good dividend yield
2) VLL - my choice at the moment; They have few projects going on according to their reports.
3) PAP - interesting due to the recent trades. Hemas bought a stake @ 3% in April and if they decide to buy more, it can trigger a Mandatory offer (a very low probability). There was a recent block done which has not been disclosed (I had a feeling that Hemas disposed?)

As per a snapshot I posted some time back, these 3 for me, outperform HPFL in many ways (HPFL is trading below book value) PAP has better profitability margins while, VPEL gives better return on assets/equity (These were based on last quarter results only)

3) PAP - interesting due to the recent trades. Hemas bought a stake @ 3% in April and if they decide to buy more, it can trigger a Mandatory offer (a very low probability). There was a recent block done which has not been disclosed (I had a feeling that Hemas disposed?)

If the hemas was the seller i feel they should have disclosed by now.

Gaja wrote:3) PAP - interesting due to the recent trades. Hemas bought a stake @ 3% in April and if they decide to buy more, it can trigger a Mandatory offer (a very low probability). There was a recent block done which has not been disclosed (I had a feeling that Hemas disposed?)

If the hemas was the seller i feel they should have disclosed by now.

That was just a feeling because if I had looked right, only Hemas had that much holding, unless it was done in multiple blocks, which I did not check.

Anyways, it is unlikely that they saw this as a very short term investment and sold at a loss.

RENu results for Dec is out.
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/569_1389868131.pdf

Present NAV is Rs 500
9 Month eps is 34+

Only if the management is generous to treat minorty holder with real dividend. Rs 4 was an insult. When cash balance is nearly Rs 200 per share.

Please note below ( said last week )

slstock wrote:


This  trend needs to continue upto about 6300-6500 taking small breaks in the middle ( so don't panic for red days).  There will be resistance at around 6200 I presume if not sooner next week.  

CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40, CDB.X was about Rs 30. Huge mismatch. N cannot stay this way forever. Maybe some people here remember the bulls when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.

slstock wrote:
CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40,   CDB.X was about Rs 30.  Huge mismatch.  N cannot stay this way forever.  Maybe some people here  remember the bulls  when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.

Answer is simple,
N and X share holders(top 20) are different so as the share price movement as well.Now how did Xclose less than 40 today.That's how it happens.I've already identified who's behind it.Ahead of the game. Wink

Also CDB.X only 8 mil shares with small public float making it move quicker than anticipated!

Cheers!

Is Balangoda a undervalued share ?

We all know why X is moving ahead of N . X is more illiquid as rappaport said. Also we know the top shares holders of X is Coco Shell.

The point is N cannot stay at these prices / quiet this way if the overall market moves. If it does at the current prices N is more valuable. But it is funny to see CINS N vs X gap ;-)

prabath wrote:

slstock wrote:
CDB.X traded at Rs 44.8 today. CDB.,N still at Rs 48!!!

When N was around Rs 40,   CDB.X was about Rs 30.  Huge mismatch.  N cannot stay this way forever.  Maybe some people here  remember the bulls  when this N was trading between Rs 80-100 during 2011.

Btw, this is an observation. Fundamental I explained before . I hold CDB so don;t get influenced by my comment without looking at the facts.

Answer is simple,
N and X share holders(top 20) are different so as the share price movement as well.Now how did Xclose less than 40 today.That's how it happens.I've already identified who's behind it.Ahead of the game. Wink

Based on NAV ( revalued on bio assets) ,  BALA is  undervalued.  But unless there is plantation run ,  we cannot expect BALA to move based on the  NAV.  The real cash cow share is KGAL. There will be a time for all these shares in the future. Overall market run, Sector run, individual runs etc. The bull is warming up still.

btw , Am not into plantations right now. Need to get some cash released first from shares I hold.

raezor wrote:

Is Balangoda a undervalued share ?

Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

Plantation rallies are usually cyclical. you may need to hold until rally comes time to time.

Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)

slstock wrote:Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe  not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

and starts with C ?

Think it's LWL   

Fresher wrote:

slstock wrote:Fundamental :
There is  NAV 95  , RS 3 dividend company beaten to ground due to last 2 quarters being rather bad.   Hint it is rather illiquid. IF you are a trader , this maybe  not right for you as there was/is an opportunity cost for holding.

and starts with C ?

One of them. TFIL , eps will be about 3. NAV  will be 13 this quarter. Not to forget IPO price was Rs 20.

slstock wrote:Still not too late to figure out .... ;-)

slstock wrote:Okay TFC is at Rs 15 ( with masive negative assets) running  on  some rumor.

Can you think of other similar value shares in that price range and same sector now with greater
a)
b)
c)