BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)

salt · 1 BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:39 pm

salt

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BFL

MarketWatch is not there to push this stock and it seems BFL looks stagnant after the crash of investnow.lk – like a house without the cowboy

KDS · 2 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:46 pm

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is it Horse without Cowboy ? ....Lol...

Bollinger · 3 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:09 pm

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So do you think that one persons influence on a website really can push a share price up that much?

upuldi · 4 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:14 pm

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its called profit taking .....

it will pushed back with in a couple of weeks i guess .... if they can announce a split dat would be great...........

invest-abc · 5 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:19 pm

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Unless BFL goes for a split it looks like it want have any momentum to move up as it did previously.

Rajitha · 6 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:34 pm

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Bollinger wrote:So do you think that one persons influence on a website really can push a share price up that much?

Not one person, but there were a huge promoting campaign for these shares. He was just a pawn in it but an important one at that. ( who knows maybe he was a rook or a queen even Very Happy

).
I had a friend of mine come to me asking about how to invest in CSE and how is the share BFL about month back. He had no clue about CSE and asked me as i'm investing in it. The reason is, at his religious place they were told to go buy BFL by two people and that they can earn easy money while helping a GOOD cause. Such was the promotion campaign that went for the poultry rally. Most of the people just know about the MW as that was there only world!!

Edit typos

Last edited by Rajitha on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

salt · 7 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:47 pm

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Obviously... This campaign may not be the sole cause, but it has helped immensely to drive up the prices recently sor some stocks... BFL, PCH , LGL... etc. I am not disputing the fact that they may offer god value, but one has to accept the fact that was a such campaign. He gave good advice...

econ · 8 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:04 pm

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BFL has justifiable reason to price up..
it is reported EPS 10 now.. can be annualized to at least 35.
so current price 460.. PER = 460/35 = 13.. still undervalued in poultry sector..

ss7097 · 9 Bairaha Farms - BFL Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:08 pm

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@econ & other experts,

What price should be according to their Q4 result. Just give me a how we can find it.

econ · 10 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:18 pm

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ss7097 wrote:@econ & other experts,

What price should be according to their Q4 result. Just give me a how we can find it.

if you take PER for poultry sector as a 15..
then BFL can justify around 15 * 35 = 525..
I am assuming annualized EPS around 35 (last quarter is 10 .. but it may be the highest quarter due to festive season.) .. EPS may be bit higher or lower depending on various factors.
but according to their reports,I firmly believe they can sustain around 35 EPS unless some thing bad happens to chicks.

TelesHope · 11 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:37 pm

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KDS wrote:is it Horse without Cowboy ? ....Lol...

Swaying Horse without a Jockey bounce

$$$ · 12 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:47 pm

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If You take PE between 15 and 20 and EPS at Rs.35 whcih is fair it still can trade between Rs.525 and Rs 700

Rajitha · 13 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:54 pm

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Just fYI if we take PE of around 30 it can be trading around Rs1000 and PE of 50 means like 1750.

Question is how can you justify buying a share of PE of 15 on poultry sector ( there are sectors that you can invest with less than half this PE)? This is considering the future problems as we clearly saw from foreign imports and bird flue to name a few( If you need more fish price going down comes under the same topic and government setting the max price of chicken low for the election times).

Chinwi · 14 BFL Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:00 pm

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econ's figure of 35 is mostly possible this year.

With the escalating world food prices and with their new ventures EPS may got to 50.00 next year.

In that context BFL is worth even now. No one seems to be in selling pressure. They are cash rich and will be able to go for more attractive ventures.
My only concern is its low Asset value per share.

mono · 15 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:02 pm

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Yeah, but BFL is delicate as a share. One whiff of bird flue and this will be down 30-40%.

econ · 16 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

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Rajitha wrote:Just fYI if we take PE of around 30 it can be trading around Rs1000 and PE of 50 means like 1750.

Question is how can you justify buying a share of PE of 15 on poultry sector ( there are sectors that you can invest with less than half this PE)? This is considering the future problems as we clearly saw from foreign imports and bird flue to name a few( If you need more fish price going down comes under the same topic and government setting the max price of chicken low for the election times).

In my opinion only sector has very low PER is plantation sector.. it has reasons for that..
plantation is always vulnerable to weather,labor,world price etc. in poultry sector only concern is bird flu.. they have a monopoly as many lankans do eat chicken but not start poultry farms due to religious/ethical issues..
chicken imports does not work in Sri Lanka. many consumers fear of Indian chicken products.
government short term measures(price setting/selling by armed forces) does not work either.
Moreover , demand for chicken is increased day by day due to tourist inflow.
so poultry sector PER of 15 is justifiable unless some thing bad happens to chicks(bird flu).

Rajitha · 17 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

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Chinwi wrote:econ's figure of 35 is mostly possible this year.

With the escalating world food prices and with their new ventures EPS may got to 50.00 next year.

In that context BFL is worth even now. No one seems to be in selling pressure. They are cash rich and will be able to go for more attractive ventures.
My only concern is its low Asset value per share.

I'm sorry mate but thats a completely misleading post. The high world food price have no impact on Sri lankan chicken. The raw material for the industry(food and rest) is taken from sri lanka mostly as importing cost 2 much and MAINLY there is a price cap for selling chicken and the are selling at the highest price possible at the moment. Also As even you posted if I can remember right BFL always have there most productive quarter as the year ending one with the festivals. After saying that how can you say you expecting even more earnings for this quarter? PLZ give valid reasons and not just false hope.

mono · 18 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:15 pm

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I thought BFL makes money by selling precut chicken pieces, which are much more expensive than the government cap, and by supplying the hotels.

Last edited by mono on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

sapumal · 19 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:18 pm

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> I'm sorry mate but thats a completely misleading post.
don't worry about it. different people has different understanding levels. Some people understand the reality of Chinwi's reply but some will not

Last edited by sapumal on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

Slstock · 20 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:45 pm

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Also As even you posted if I can remember right BFL always have there most productive quarter as the year ending one with the festivals. After saying that how can you say you expecting even more earnings for this quarter? PLZ give valid reasons and not just false hope.

Yes they usually do tend to have the highest quarters during december due to festive season. I am not promopting BFL. Just mentioned facts as I would for any share .

There is potential for future growth due to
1) they have gone for a new Farm with 10 years tax exemptions . More revenue mean more possible profit/
2) into maize cultivation so they can feed the chicks... ( cost saving)

Ofcouse poultry sector is vulnerable to external factors just like plantations. So BFL is no exception in that regard. We should also monitor each quarter.

mono · 21 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:28 pm

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The best part about the BFL madness came when Tubal made a comment about bird flu, Lol. the poor guy got jumped on.

$$$ · 22 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:36 pm

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Well EPS of 35 is on target and demand far out weighs supply....this will only increase. I think it's very realistic to expect BFL to settle around Rs. 600 or more....they have invested in new venttures as well. since they are debt free and cash rich they can look at looking in to more ventures or sharing the good times with the share holders via a bonus issue, something to keep in mind however is external shock like bird flu etc . at these levels it's very attractive.

$$$ · 23 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:46 pm

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Rajitha PE of 30 and 50 means the counter is over valued and hence not many people will buy unless there is avery good reason...i.e stellar growth in the form of a take over or a bonus issue etc.

Or a typical PCH scenario....

The facts presented by many including my self PE 15 to 20 with eps of approx Rs.35 is quite reasonable.

Risk is something we all have to take in to account when trading in any security be it internal or external. I also agree that if there is a break out of bird flu yes the chickens will suffer as a result specailly BFL as it is illiquid...Just like Plantations have their wage issues and are effected by weather patterns etc.

tubal · 24 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:52 pm

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mono wrote:The best part about the BFL madness came when Tubal made a comment about bird flu, Lol. the poor guy got jumped on.

Oh yes, mono. I never thanked you for jumping into my rescue.

$$$ · 25 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 6:41 pm

$$$

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Exactly what I said in the PCH post....the zombie mentality where everything seems blurred....No sense can be driven in to people who are over whelmed by greed and who are hero worshipping a person or persons....any one seen to be going against theri beleifs are treated as traitors or conspiracy theorists. Tubal and Mono were at the receiving end .....PCH and BFL became a religion and MW was their god...nothing could stand in between.

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BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)

1 BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:39 pm

salt

2 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:46 pm

KDS

3 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:09 pm

Bollinger

4 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:14 pm

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5 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:19 pm

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6 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:34 pm

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7 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:47 pm

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8 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:04 pm

econ

9 Bairaha Farms - BFL Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:08 pm

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10 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:18 pm

econ

11 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:37 pm

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12 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:47 pm

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13 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:54 pm

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15 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:02 pm

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16 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

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17 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

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18 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:15 pm

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19 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:18 pm

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20 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:45 pm

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22 Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:36 pm

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