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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)

BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)

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1BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:39 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Screen94


BFL

MarketWatch is not there to push this stock and it seems BFL looks stagnant after the crash of investnow.lk – like a house without the cowboy

2BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:46 pm

KDS

KDS
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
is it Horse without Cowboy ? ....Lol...

3BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:09 pm

Bollinger

Bollinger
Stock Trader
So do you think that one persons influence on a website really can push a share price up that much?

4BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:14 pm

upuldi

upuldi
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
its called profit taking .....

it will pushed back with in a couple of weeks i guess .... if they can announce a split dat would be great...........

5BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:19 pm

invest-abc


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Unless BFL goes for a split it looks like it want have any momentum to move up as it did previously.

6BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:34 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Bollinger wrote:So do you think that one persons influence on a website really can push a share price up that much?
Not one person, but there were a huge promoting campaign for these shares. He was just a pawn in it but an important one at that. ( who knows maybe he was a rook or a queen even Very Happy ).
I had a friend of mine come to me asking about how to invest in CSE and how is the share BFL about month back. He had no clue about CSE and asked me as i'm investing in it. The reason is, at his religious place they were told to go buy BFL by two people and that they can earn easy money while helping a GOOD cause. Such was the promotion campaign that went for the poultry rally. Most of the people just know about the MW as that was there only world!!

Edit typos



Last edited by Rajitha on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

7BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:47 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Obviously... This campaign may not be the sole cause, but it has helped immensely to drive up the prices recently sor some stocks... BFL, PCH , LGL... etc. I am not disputing the fact that they may offer god value, but one has to accept the fact that was a such campaign. He gave good advice...

8BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:04 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
BFL has justifiable reason to price up..
it is reported EPS 10 now.. can be annualized to at least 35.
so current price 460.. PER = 460/35 = 13.. still undervalued in poultry sector..

9BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Bairaha Farms - BFL Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:08 pm

ss7097

ss7097
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@econ & other experts,

What price should be according to their Q4 result. Just give me a how we can find it.

10BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:18 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@ss7097 wrote:@econ & other experts,

What price should be according to their Q4 result. Just give me a how we can find it.

if you take PER for poultry sector as a 15..
then BFL can justify around 15 * 35 = 525..
I am assuming annualized EPS around 35 (last quarter is 10 .. but it may be the highest quarter due to festive season.) .. EPS may be bit higher or lower depending on various factors.
but according to their reports,I firmly believe they can sustain around 35 EPS unless some thing bad happens to chicks.

11BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:37 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@KDS wrote:is it Horse without Cowboy ? ....Lol...

Swaying Horse without a Jockey bounce

12BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:47 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If You take PE between 15 and 20 and EPS at Rs.35 whcih is fair it still can trade between Rs.525 and Rs 700

13BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:54 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Just fYI if we take PE of around 30 it can be trading around Rs1000 and PE of 50 means like 1750.

Question is how can you justify buying a share of PE of 15 on poultry sector ( there are sectors that you can invest with less than half this PE)? This is considering the future problems as we clearly saw from foreign imports and bird flue to name a few( If you need more fish price going down comes under the same topic and government setting the max price of chicken low for the election times).

14BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty BFL Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
econ's figure of 35 is mostly possible this year.

With the escalating world food prices and with their new ventures EPS may got to 50.00 next year.

In that context BFL is worth even now. No one seems to be in selling pressure. They are cash rich and will be able to go for more attractive ventures.
My only concern is its low Asset value per share.

15BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:02 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yeah, but BFL is delicate as a share. One whiff of bird flue and this will be down 30-40%.

16BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@Rajitha wrote:Just fYI if we take PE of around 30 it can be trading around Rs1000 and PE of 50 means like 1750.

Question is how can you justify buying a share of PE of 15 on poultry sector ( there are sectors that you can invest with less than half this PE)? This is considering the future problems as we clearly saw from foreign imports and bird flue to name a few( If you need more fish price going down comes under the same topic and government setting the max price of chicken low for the election times).

In my opinion only sector has very low PER is plantation sector.. it has reasons for that..
plantation is always vulnerable to weather,labor,world price etc. in poultry sector only concern is bird flu.. they have a monopoly as many lankans do eat chicken but not start poultry farms due to religious/ethical issues..
chicken imports does not work in Sri Lanka. many consumers fear of Indian chicken products.
government short term measures(price setting/selling by armed forces) does not work either.
Moreover , demand for chicken is increased day by day due to tourist inflow.
so poultry sector PER of 15 is justifiable unless some thing bad happens to chicks(bird flu).

17BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:econ's figure of 35 is mostly possible this year.

With the escalating world food prices and with their new ventures EPS may got to 50.00 next year.

In that context BFL is worth even now. No one seems to be in selling pressure. They are cash rich and will be able to go for more attractive ventures.
My only concern is its low Asset value per share.

I'm sorry mate but thats a completely misleading post. The high world food price have no impact on Sri lankan chicken. The raw material for the industry(food and rest) is taken from sri lanka mostly as importing cost 2 much and MAINLY there is a price cap for selling chicken and the are selling at the highest price possible at the moment. Also As even you posted if I can remember right BFL always have there most productive quarter as the year ending one with the festivals. After saying that how can you say you expecting even more earnings for this quarter? PLZ give valid reasons and not just false hope.

18BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:15 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I thought BFL makes money by selling precut chicken pieces, which are much more expensive than the government cap, and by supplying the hotels.



Last edited by mono on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

19BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:18 pm

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
> I'm sorry mate but thats a completely misleading post.
don't worry about it. different people has different understanding levels. Some people understand the reality of Chinwi's reply but some will not



Last edited by sapumal on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

20BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000)  Empty Re: BAIRAHA FARMS PLC (BFL.N0000) Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:45 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Also As even you posted if I can remember right BFL always have there most productive quarter as the year ending one with the festivals. After saying that how can you say you expecting even more earnings for this quarter? PLZ give valid reasons and not just false hope.

Yes they usually do tend to have the highest quarters during december due to festive season. I am not promopting BFL. Just mentioned facts as I would for any share .

There is potential for future growth due to
1) they have gone for a new Farm with 10 years tax exemptions . More revenue mean more possible profit/
2) into maize cultivation so they can feed the chicks... ( cost saving)

Ofcouse poultry sector is vulnerable to external factors just like plantations. So BFL is no exception in that regard. We should also monitor each quarter.

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