LOLC HOLDINGS PLC (LOLC.N0000)

tubal wrote:

Monster wrote:

tubal wrote:

Monster wrote:I don’t have any more patience. I disposed it for 143.90 in the morning.

If I were you I would have bought back at 138 just to see where this goes. I am also of the opinion that the published earnings aren't as good as the press releases would have us believe (academic's point of view). However I also think that what mono says is not without merit.

I have made a good decision. Now it's almost Rs100/-. From next week I am going to start to collect.

I did buy some at around 138, I traded it quite a few times and sold at 119 the trading covered the bulk of the losses. I have no plans of re entry, they can't match last years earnings this year.

Some what I agree with you. They wouldn't make any revenue from it's leisure for the next 18 months since they are closing for refurbishment. Hence it's going be a burden for the group in this financial year unless company perform extra ordinary in their core business.

Hi experts,
Will LOLC be further come down..?
or
Is it worth to buy at current prices in order to average the cost?

Buy in 95-100range. Its a good mid term investment.

RSI is well below 30.

Academic wrote:

gann wrote:

Academic wrote:

1.
The immediate reason for going LOLC down is its earning quality and downgrading debt rating based on double leverage.

Can any of you explain how name change to Holding address above issues? Isn't it the same LOLC?

2.
Further it is no more a Finance company. A jack of all trades.

Investors attracted to its finance business which will be shifted to LOFC. Once LOFC listed people may forget LOLC. This may explain why we saw large sell orders for LOLC in last couples of days (an information leakage?)?

In addition to that widely diversified companies are subjected to a "Conglomeration discount" in calculating its fair-value.

According to the following article LOLC is already in the top list of diversified companies in par with JKH with a impressive growth of Assets and ROE.
http://www.ft.lk/2011/04/08/welcome-the-new-conglomerate/

Any comments?

It is bit difficult to predict how market would react. However, FT article clearly shows ROA of LOLC is well below two largest diversifieds, JKH and Carson. In addition to that part of reported earnings of LOLC was due to SEYB investment reclassification (1.7 billion). This may have revised by 31 march as SEYB doped to 75. So I cant see a impressive ROA with LOLC. IMHO recent acquisitions made LOLC's ROA stagnant (As Fitch Ratings pointed out in below link).

See http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=926577279 for more details.

I think LOLC wants to remove this diluting effect of acquisitions from its main business. That is why they are going to list Financial companies. Thus, financial subsidiaries would be attractive compared to LOLC in terms of ROA , ROE etc, as all dilutions are accumulated at holding company (LOLC) level.

This is not an investment advice or recommendation

As I explained on the other day, drop in LOLC is likely attributable to listing Lanka Orix Finance (LOF) ( see announcement at http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/7861308891717_.pdf )

So don't be panic by seeing LOLC at below 100. Once LOF listed LOLC may further go down.

Any news behind the large turnover. Some interest shown on LOFC as well.

A sell out I guess

LOLC was green in a red market. was it a foreign buying today ?

Hope will be more active tomorrow
wish LOFC will follow LOLC

LOLC is a very strong company at the current market. Even in the fundamentally Its really worth to current price. With this high volume turnover, I guess it will go up in coming days.....

I dont think it's a sell out.. I guess it is on the market deal.

After September 30th we can see some shift in investors mind set. We followed the rally. All went up, irrespective of results of near future.

NOW IT'S WHO WILL DELIVER BETTER RESULTS IN THE QUARTER JUST ENDED!

We can see all the shares that are expected to do well in September are sustaining. LOLC is one of them.

Q on Q basis LOLC will report more than three tims than that of June 30th 2012.

hariesha wrote:

We can see all the shares the shares that are expected to do well in September are sustaining. LOLC is one of them.

You have a good point. Most strong shares are not dropping heavily in this red days.

I think another news already leaked to brokers.

econ wrote:I think another news already leaked to brokers.

Econ i dont know what news this all about....but i had a look at the charts yesterday....and did not like the PA ....so for all my BUY orders are on hold until the correction leg is complete......now dont ask me precisely where is the turning point....

A good re-entry imo is 5550-5650 if at all touches...perhaps market can turn GREEN all of sudden in a day or 2 or perhaps 3.....

TAH

monash wrote:I dont think it's a sell out.. I guess it is on the market deal.

I mean its selling pressure.. Not a sell deal

I didn't know any news about LOLC. But I made purchases expecting good quarterly results. But there were some abnormal accumulation during last several days. Some body has highlighted this activity in the forum yesterday or day before. I didn't expect LOLC to start moving so quickly. So couldn’t collect the targeted quantity yet. Hope it will not move rapidly in the coming days.

Why I looked at it as one of my picks for Oct.

LOLC is one of the largest investment trusts in CSE, though people consider it as a leasing company or a diversified holding. At group level their portfolio value was about 9.7 billion in last June. According to my calculations their net gain from CSE activities for the three months ended 30th Sep. 2012 should be something between Rs. 1.4 - 1.9 billion. This equals to an EPS of Rs. 2.75 - 3.80. Without this gain last quarter they had and EPS of Rs.1.38. So we can expect something close to Rs.4/- for the September quarter.

Is this going to be only for this quarter? As majority of the analysts believe market will gradually move ahead, LOLC will make similar gains for DEC. and March also, which can easily generate an EPS exceeding Rs.12/- for FY 2012/2013.

So when we consider current year earnings expectations LOLC is trading at 1X PBV and less than 5X PER.

Next question is, is it realistic? Yes they have done it in FY 2009/10, FY 2010/11 and even in 2011/12.

Expect a detail analysis in the future, if time permits.

slstock wrote:

hariesha wrote:

We can see all the shares the shares that are expected to do well in September are sustaining. LOLC is one of them.

You have a good point. Most strong shares are not dropping heavily in this red days.

But LOLC already had a massive drop from Rs.145 to 35 during past year.

monash wrote:

slstock wrote:

hariesha wrote:

We can see all the shares the shares that are expected to do well in September are sustaining. LOLC is one of them.

You have a good point. Most strong shares are not dropping heavily in this red days.

But LOLC already had a massive drop from Rs.145 to 35 during past year.

What I meant is during these recent Red days strong shares are not
falling that much. Possbily because some of them are over corrected.


Well if you talking about the major market drops from asi 7800 to 4700. Yes LOLC dropped actually Rs 26. NOte on EPS basis and NAV basis
these drops for LOLC were not valid. But people discounted it too much
for one time gain and made it drop to unrealistic levels. That what bear does to you. Not only LOLC
almost all shares good and bad lost ground . Rs 250 shares Rs
15+. Rs 2000 shares to Rs 210. Rs 28 IPO to Rs 9. Rs 15 to Rs 6 + etc etc. During these drops some will get over corrected.

LOLC is no wonder a good company under a careful mgt.. What I see these days is some one is selling this share at 50-51 levels..
Price is not moving up and cash map is red (DFN cash map is disastrous sometimes)

I use ADX to measure the strength and it indicates a weak strength for LOLC last 6-7 days..

For the last four trading days 9.0 Mil shares traded. From as low as 50.3 to high as 53.5 in just 4 days.



Yesterday ADX's gave an in indication the strength is going to get reversed by +DI line crossing the -DI..

Now 200Day MA has been crossed uppish by 20Day MA. And the trading price is just under both..
At 50.5, this just resides on the 23.6% Fib level from the last uptrend..

So lets see how this goes as the selling subdues..

To me if you take activity from Feb 2012, there is a cup and handle sort of accumuluation pattern with the handle in formation at the moment...
I may be wrong... Hmmm...

Cheers!

SLIC shedding stake.

Those who bought in the morning for day trading can realize 8% for the day. Those who bought 50-51 levels now enjoy about 14% within 5 days.

Those who keep eys on charts can buy later!

oh technical lover buy our sheres @ high technical is useless in cse.poor lovers

last qtr eps is 1.38. unless september qtr shows better results LOLC is already at peak level.

Ok this is the funniest part..

I talked about the strength of the signal.. Then today morning I published this;

Yesterday ADX's gave an in indication the strength is going to get reversed by +DI line crossing the -DI..

Now 200Day MA has been crossed uppish by 20Day MA. And the trading price is just under both..
At 50.5, this just resides on the 23.6% Fib level from the last uptrend..

I did read my chart correct and indicated a reversal is imminent.. For those who cannot read properly and think they're smart I've nothing to say.. :Deleted:

BTW, do I need to mention my buy point and exit point too??

One thing is clear.. There're a lot of in reading comprehension issues amongst some members...
Posting a technical finding now a-days almost kinda non-sense cuz someone comes back and try to show their foolishness without even knowing what the poster has done..

?????

Backstage wrote:SLIC shedding stake.

Yes this is artificial price hike now the manupulation is on the fundermentaly sound shares also
SLIC wants to shed it s stake at high price and they are doing it in smart way ....

Dont get burned your selves ..

LOLCt had good run from 26 to 55 without much sellers.then it started to come down bit because of the big seller.now buyer at Rs 50.50 absorb most of the selling.IF i am rightly red those movements this share should appreciate 5% next week.
If we are thinking medium to long term this is one of the biggest local investors in post WAR sri lanka. I think only concern among investors is their huge expose to declining finance sector. But when their other investments like hotels ,sugar and green energy project will make good profits in the coming years.

someone wrote:
Dont get burned your selves ..

How ironical is this ? The very people who dragged others to fire advise not to get burnt.
* When CSF was trading at peak around 26 -28 someone disclosed about a deal set at Rs. 40.
* When York was trading around 40 someone disclosed about a right issue and share price hike upto Rs 80.
These are few of the examples i can remember. As a beginner who knows nothing about MACD or RSI I lost thousands of my money following these posts made for ulterior motives. The irony is, such people without a conscience who think of earning money even by killing a dog advise others not to get burnt.

What if the hike today was the result of forum posts written about it? May be it helped a push. It wasn't the first time it happened. Remember Market Watch Because me too did a day trading just for fun after reading the posts. I wouldn't do that if it wasn't for the post.

hasi17 wrote:What if the hike today was the result of forum posts written about it? May be it helped a push. It wasn't the first time it happened. Remember Market Watch Because me too did a day trading just for fun after reading the posts. I wouldn't do that if it wasn't for the post.

:Deleted: husshhhhhhhhhhhh