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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Power and Energy Sector

Power and Energy Sector

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1Power and Energy Sector Empty Power and Energy Sector Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:37 am

krisen


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Energy supply and use. Sri Lanka used 12.8 million tons of oil equivalent energy in 2017. At $7.5 of economic output per kilogram of oil equivalent in 2014, Sri Lanka ranks high among countries that report similar per capita economic output. Petroleum, imported as crude oil and finished products, provides the highest share (43% in 2017) of energy to the national economy, followed by biomass (37%), coal (11%), hydro (6%), and new renewable energy (3%). The country has succeeded in delivering modern energy sources to its whole population; petroleum products and bottled liquefied petroleum gas are widely available. Electrification of households reached 100% in 2017. Energy end-users are households and commercial (40%), transport (36%), and industries (34%).
Renewable energy.

Much of the hydropower capacity has been developed already for electricity generation: 1,390 megawatts (MW) in larger power plants by the state-owned utility, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) and 350 MW in smaller power plants by private investors. About 250 MW of hydropower capacity is in various stages of development, which would most likely be the last medium-scale hydropower plants to be developed. A few more small power plants remain to be developed, by the private sector. The technical resource potential for solar power generation is estimated to be 6,000 MW. Net-metered rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) was allowed since 2008, and since 2016, surplus energy sent out to the
grid was paid. The target capacity of rooftop solar PV is 200 MW by 2020. The exploitable wind power potential is estimated to be 5,600 MW, of which about 130 MW has been developed, with a further 130 MW under construction.
Fossil fuels. Exploration for gas and petroleum have not resulted in commercial production, although some deposits of gas have been discovered in Mannar basin, offshore on the western coast. More exploration is planned in other offshore areas on the west and east coast. About 30% of petroleum requirement is imported as crude oil and processed in the country’s single refinery, while the balance requirements are imported as refined products. Liquefied petroleum gas is imported and supplemented with the output of the refinery, bottled and delivered to customers. Coal is imported for electricity generation for the
900 MW power plant, and for smaller industrial applications.

Sector management and regulation. Two ministries are responsible for policy formulation and supervision of energy sector institutions and utilities. The Ministry of Power, Energy and Business Development prepares energy policy, supervises the main state-owned power sector utility CEB, the state-owned distribution utility Lanka Electricity Company, Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority, and several other state-owned entities in the energy sector. The Ministry of Petroleum Resources Development oversees exploration for gas and petroleum, supervises state-owned Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) and several entities in the petroleum sector. The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) is the multisector regulator, which is presently empowered to perform the functions of technical, economic, commercial, and safety regulator of the electricity industry. Petroleum and water supply are expected to be assigned to PUCSL for regulation, in the near future.

Ownership of energy utilities. The electricity industry and the petroleum industry are both managed largely by state-owned corporations. Private sector participation in the electricity industry is limited to power generation, while in the petroleum industry, the private sector is engaged in petroleum distribution, bunker supplies, gas distribution, and oil exploration.
Electricity sector reforms. Electricity generation and supply in towns previously handled by private entities were taken over by the government in the 1950s, and in 1969, handed over to the government-owned corporation CEB. Electricity industry reforms commenced in 1983, when distribution previously handled by city councils was transferred to a government-owned company. In 1996, private investors were allowed to produce and sell electricity to the single-buyer CEB.
In the same year, feed-in tariffs to enable private investors to build, own, and operate small (up to 10 MW) power plants to use renewable energy, were announced. However, to this date, CEB remains substantially a vertically integrated electricity utility. Unbundling the utility into separate generating, transmission, and distribution companies proposed in the Electricity Reforms Act 2002 did not materialize. The Electricity Act 2009 introduced limited unbundling, where all businesses remain under one corporate ownership, while generation, transmission, and distribution functions were separately licensed. PUCSL commenced regulatory functions in 2009.
Petroleum industry reforms. Similarly, in the 1960s, the government-owned corporation CPC was established to import, refine, and supply petroleum products, previously marketed by private companies. CPC continues to operate the 50,000 barrels-per-day refinery, and imports and markets much of refined products. In 2004, about 35% of CPC’s retail outlets were transferred to Lanka IOC. Since 2004, most storage facilities are jointly owned by CPC and Lanka IOC, through a company. After years of planning, the Petroleum Industry Act, which would corporatize the presently government-owned corporation CPC and empower PUCSL to regulate economic, technical, commercial, and safety performance of the sector, has not been presented to Parliament as yet.

Electricity demand and supply. Sri Lanka’s per capita electricity consumption was 626 kWh/person in 2017, lower than India and many of the developing countries in Southeast Asia. In 2017, the share of sales to household customers was 37% and to industrial customers was 32%, and the sales to the commercial sector was 29%. As the economy moves toward higher growth in the services sector, the share of electricity sold to industries has been on the decline for several years. Annual sales growth in the past five years was below 9% per year, while the growth in peak demand was below 7% per year. Thus, the load factor has grown from 63% to 68% from 2010–2017, indicating that the mandatory time-of-use tariffs for industries since 2011 and to commercial customers since 2013 have the desired impacts. Completion of household electrification in 2017 and the higher growth in daytime sales to commercial customers also positively impact the load factor.
Electricity demand growth and investment needs. Single-buyer and transmission licensee CEB forecasts that sales will grow at the rate of about 7.5% until 2021, and then decline to about 5% per year by the end of the decade. The peak demand is forecasted to cross 3,000 MW by 2020 and reach 4,800 MW
by 2030. Significantly, the time of occurrence of the peak demand is expected to shift from the present late evening (typically 7 p.m.) to early afternoon (typically 1 p.m.), by 2027. To meet the growing demand at the lowest cost, CEB plans indicate the investment requirements for power generation to be $2,400 million from 2020–2025. Matching investments are required for transmission (to inter- connect generating facilities), estimated to be $320 million and in distribution (to serve the growing demand and to improve reliability of supply to customers) a further $60 million.
Petroleum sales growth. No formal forecasts are published by CPC, but it is expected that the growth in sales of petroleum products will remain at 5%– 10% per year. No specific investment plans are published by the petroleum industry entities.
Electricity industry outlook. At present, the electricity industry has three major constraints: (i) capacity shortage and delays in implementation of mainstream power plants; (ii) slow growth in renewable energy development; and (iii) severe financial crisis, mainly attributed to noncost reflective tariffs. The capacity shortage has to be resolved by building larger power plants. CEB has proposed that the two canceled coal-fired power plants be revived and built using the latest technology. Additionally, two combined cycle power plants are required to be built to cater to seasonal shortages of hydropower. CEB expects the liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal to be ready by 2023, already behind its previous schedule at 2020. Renewable energy development through solar and wind investments by the private sector is effectively at a standstill owing to legal impediments and lack of clarity on the feed-in tariffs. Solar and wind parks have been put out for competitive bids, but only a handful have materialized. These shortcomings have to be resolved, to create a healthy environment for private investors to build solar and wind power plants in the long term. The financial

crisis would only be managed by PUCSL, with CEB cooperating by submitting information to calculate allowed revenues, and then gradually working through a tariff increase and rebalancing process.
Unfinished reforms in the electricity supply industry. While unbundling of CEB is effectively stalled, it is still an integrated structure with functional units. CEB corporate remains largely intact although it is functionally unbundled. CEB corporate manages the entire institution, while licensed entities within CEB have not been made accountable to the allowed revenue they receive. The present methodology allows the penalties for increased network losses, and incentives
for reaching loss levels above the target. Lanka Electric Company (LECO), the only corporate entity in the power sector, distributes about 10% of the total energy and has experienced the benefits of economic regulations, as well as responding to energy efficiency targets. Quality of supply reliability is managed
by PUCSL, the direction should by now be catering to the needs of the electricity customers, by establishing reliability targets, measuring or estimating systems, and imposing penalties when targets are violated. Similarly, commercial quality of electricity service requires regulatory oversight. Currently, CEB does not submit to PUCSL, information required for economic, technical, and commercial regulatory activities. Accordingly, determination of allowed revenues and the cost of supply has not been done since 2017.
Reforms in gas and petroleum industry. The petroleum industry remains partially unbundled, while CPC remains intact as a large integrated entity. The Petroleum Industry Act that would establish unbundling and regulatory oversight requires to be completed soon and approved by Parliament. Petroleum pricing
is conducted by the Ministry of Finance, which is required to pass on to PUCSL, to establish a more transparent pricing procedure. Sri Lanka does not have a
gas industry law; a decision is required on whether a separate gas authority is
to be established to manage the planned import of LNG and distribution of regasified LNG, or whether CPC is to be empowered to manage the gas industry as well.
Energy efficiency outlook. Sri Lanka requires the completion of initiatives already in progress to establish and enforce appliance performance standards. Mandatory energy consumption reporting and submission of energy management plans by large customers have not been implemented, although these have been in the regulations for the past several years. Smart techniques to manage demand are still at pilot stage, requiring further efforts to use information technology to improved energy management through demand-side management and demand response techniques.


Hi,

whatis the the good stock to watch in power sector

HPWR,PAP,VPEL

Thank you

2Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Thu Apr 28, 2011 10:12 am

manula


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I have brought VPEL shares and heard they built a new power station with the American collaboration and going to commission from July. So hope price will be increase in future.

3Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Thu Apr 28, 2011 12:11 pm

TuskerLK

TuskerLK
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
What about VLL,

they may come up with dividends soon.

4Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Thu Apr 28, 2011 1:27 pm

milanka

milanka
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
On 16th March there was a crossing of PAP 60,000,000 shares at 4.50 also in the past also I noticed few more crossings.

Anyway one concern is that we do not have any accounts to comment properly on the share. I am waiting to see who are the major 20 share holders.


http://forum.srilankaequity.com/u188

5Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Thu Apr 28, 2011 10:03 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@milanka wrote:On 16th March there was a crossing of PAP 60,000,000 shares at 4.50 also in the past also I noticed few more crossings.

Anyway one concern is that we do not have any accounts to comment properly on the share. I am waiting to see who are the major 20 share holders.



Attractive dividend payout ratio..... ( Extract from Prospectus)

Before the IPO...

2009/10 EPS Rs.255..... DPS Rs.135 Div pay out ratio 53%
2008/09 EPS Rs.311..... DPS Rs.173 Div pay out ratio 56%

See other companies Dividend payout Ratio For 2009/10

VLL 2009/10.... EPS Rs.3.22 DPS Rs.1... 35%
VPEL 2009/10 .... EPS Rs.0.53 DPS Rs.0.25... 50%
HPWR 2009/10 ... EPS Rs.2.12 DPS 1.3 --- 60%
HPFL 2009/10 ( Nodata)


look at its earnings

Pan Asian Power - For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----70,000,000

Total -----121,580,401

Issued qty ------500,000,000

Annualized EPS ------ Rs.0.24

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.3.80

PE ------- Only 15 times

as milanka pointed out, once the company release the quarter accounts, we will be see the fair picture of share... quarter a/c is expected to release before mid of may........

When you look at the other companies in power sector

VLL- 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VLL:SL
HPWR -19 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPWR:SL
VPEL - 17 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VPEL:SL
HPFL - 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPFL:SL

Happy Trading...

6Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:50 pm

sanjeewa88

sanjeewa88
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Why hydro-power companies maintain a higher pay-out ratio?

Is there any problem regarding to the expansion of this businesses?




7Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Mon Jul 18, 2011 3:14 pm

promode


Stock Trader
All Hydro Power Companies are BOI registered companies. First five years tax free. Next five years 10 %, after that 20 %. Loans payback Period usually 4-5 yrs. O & M cost very low. water is free. So they can easily maintain Higher pay-out ratio.

This buisness runs among large investors as Mr. KDDP,DSI,Hemas,Hayleys, Metropolitan and Asai Power (foreign). This buisness is depending on Natural resource, due to limited resources, expansion is slow and one day it will stop expanding.

8Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:33 am

maheshprabahath


Stock Trader
hi
i would like to know what are the good shares to be purchased for daily market ....

9Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:43 am

sanjeewa88

sanjeewa88
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@promode wrote:All Hydro Power Companies are BOI registered companies. First five years tax free. Next five years 10 %, after that 20 %. Loans payback Period usually 4-5 yrs. O & M cost very low. water is free. So they can easily maintain Higher pay-out ratio.

This buisness runs among large investors as Mr. KDDP,DSI,Hemas,Hayleys, Metropolitan and Asai Power (foreign). This buisness is depending on Natural resource, due to limited resources, expansion is slow and one day it will stop expanding.

Thanks promode +rep from me

10Power and Energy Sector Empty Power Sector Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:05 pm

lamaya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Guiz what you all think about the power sector....seems HPFL looks undervalued compared to other counters......ideas plz.............

11Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Tue Sep 13, 2011 5:20 am

thambi

thambi
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
hemas power seems the pick in the power industry !
havnt seen a really rally in power industry as yet Sad

12Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Tue Sep 13, 2011 8:46 am

crdesilva

crdesilva
Stock Trader
PAP had a mini rally about a week back. Some brokers are recomending the power sector - just a FYI

13Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Tue Sep 13, 2011 9:09 am

ABEST


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
brothers, one of director of VLL is collecting this share at each price,
in my view VLL will hit
you can see in cse
not recommended to buy sell or hold

14Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Tue Sep 13, 2011 12:23 pm

lamaya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
in HPFl two of their mini hydro power projects commence operation in Nov 2011 and another two will start in April 2012. This would boost their current power generation capacity of 3.2MW to 5.17MW in end of 2011 and 8.77MW by next April 2011.....
So i think HPFL has better prospects in terms of earnings..

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Bandula Sirimanna

The Government confidently said this week it planned to discontinue buying private sector-generated power in the next two years, with power generation from new state plants sufficient to meet the country’s entire needs. The assurance came amidst frequent breakdowns in coal and thermal power plants resulting in countrywide power cuts.

Power and Energy Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka told the Business Times that the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) is to halt the practice of purchasing power in the next two years from independent power producers (IPPs) with the commissioning of the second and third stages of the Puttalam Lakvijaya power plant at Norochcholai with a capacity of 600 MW.

Lakvijaya, the country’s first coal power plant, will have a total capacity of 900 megawatts (MW). The first phase has a capacity of 300 MW, and the second and third phases, to be commissioned by 2014, will produce the balance 600 MW. On Wednesday, this power plant (first stage) was automatically shut down due to the tripping of the transmission line from Norochcholai to Veyangoda depriving the national grid of 300 MW. This resulted in power cuts of 2.15 hours duration being imposed in 58 towns and the Colombo city area. Mr Ranawaka said the CEB is considering the possibility of not extending the existing power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with IPPs as and when it comes up for renewal in the future. The CEB entered into these agreements between 1995 and 2005 and some of the conditions demanded by the private sector were not acceptable, the Minister said.

The agreement with Aitken Spence Plc’s Lakdhanavi Ltd near Colombo is up for renewal by the end of this year while an already expired agreement with the company for its 20MW thermal power plant at Matara is presently under negotiation for extension, he disclosed.
“Of the 11 independent power plants, agreements with six will expire in the next three to four years. Some are subsidiaries of the CEB, and the rest belong to the private sector,” Mr Ranawaka said.

IPPs are run by several local firms including Aitken Spence and Hemas Power. Some have foreign investors and even the Asian Development Bank as shareholders. The total installed capacity of these power plants is 782 MWs. Private sector power per one kilowatt hour (Kwh) costs Rs. 19 to the CEB which sells it at a subsidized rate of Rs.13 to the public, thus incurring a loss of Rs. 27 billion, he said.
The country’s power demand could be met without buying power from the private sector, after all the state plants come on stream.

An IPP is typically paid through a ‘capacity charge’ which contains a fixed profit margin for the capital invested and a usage charge which is mostly a pass-through running cost of burned fuel and lubricants, a spokesperson for the IPPs told the Business Times.
IPPs have not been officially informed about a plan to halt the power purchases from the private sector, he said adding that, if this happens, the government would have to pay the capital invested by them in accordance with the agreement.

The proposal to set up a coal power plant came when the country experienced repeated power failures and shortages in the 1990s. At the time, the country depended on a single hydropower system. “During this period, the CEB was compelled to buy power from the private sector,” the Minister said adding that the international power agencies were refusing to fund new power projects. “So the CEB had to buy power from independent power producers,” he disclosed.” He said IPP’s played a very important role in Sri Lanka’s�� energy sector preventing the imposing of power cuts during power shortages.

The IPP spokesperson noted that the government on its own cannot change or cancel the agreements as it was guaranteed by the state.
But the Minister said though the private power plants are allowed to operate under strict and complex agreements, the government could take unilateral action to cancel it any time as private sector power is very expensive.

Over the past decade, the private sector’s power contribution has continued to rise, with the sector fulfilling around 43% of the country’s power requirements during 2011 compared to less than 10% in 2000. The country’s IPP sector comprised 115 producers as at end-December 2011, with 90 players focusing on mini-hydro power.
http://www.sundaytimes.lk/120812/business-times/ceb-to-stop-private-power-purchases-in-2013-2014-8155.html

16Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Aug 12, 2012 3:41 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Another sector that can be in controversy and crisis thanks to direct Govn involvement.
We need to figure out what these agreements say to understand what will happen to capital invested for these private companies if Govn decides to go other way. Also will the big boys, Aitken, Hemas and Valible do nothing and wait?

BTW, the minister stating within 2 years private power is not needed Arrow Rolling Eyes

17Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:50 am

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Another sector that can be in controversy and crisis thanks to direct Govn involvement. We need to figure out what these agreements say to understand what will happen to capital invested for these private companies if Govn decides to go other way. Also will the big boys, Aitken, Hemas and Valible do nothing and wait?
BTW, the minister stating within 2 years private power is not needed Arrow Rolling Eyes
What we need to figure out is why we need to keep such an incompetent (and corrupt too) people to decide the destiny of the land.

18Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:18 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
if this happens, the government would have to pay the capital invested by them in accordance with the agreement.

Private sector power per one kilowatt hour (Kwh) costs Rs. 19 to the CEB which sells it at a subsidized rate of Rs.13 to the public, thus incurring a loss of Rs. 27 billion, he said.

Total value of Hemas power is 2.5 billion. (Report 2012)
CEB paid them 4.5 bil. in 2012 for the power they produced. The Govt. earned 3 billion by reselling . The loss is 1.5.

I think if they paid back 100% of the capital after depreciation it is good for the Govt. If this really happens the trading prices of these power companies will go near to the net asset value.

For hydro power plants, they should continue buying as they are the producers of renewable energy.





19Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:36 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
The cost per unit of elecrticity produced by the CEB should be much higher than the declared amount by them, because certain cost elements financed through foreign loans/grants are not factored into their costing. I guess it is higher than the unit cost paid to the private sector. However, the acual cost per unit bought from the private sector is known as per the agreements.

I think the Govt. should keep these private facilities as an emergency backup under a renegotiated agreement which would reduce the current high rates payable upto a tolarable amount by the private investors. Afterall, they were the people who helped the Govt. to provide un-interrupted power supply over the years.

20Power and Energy Sector Empty Re: Power and Energy Sector Sun Aug 12, 2012 1:17 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I'm thinking in a different direction,may be I'm wrong.
CEB may become 100% Private in near future by merging with all the existing hydro power companies.
Anything can happen in the Miracle of Asia.

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