Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months?

Jana1 wrote:

sriranga wrote:

Antonym wrote:

sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.

No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

Base Market Capitalisation in CSE is fixed and its related to 1985.

U confused with opening Base Market Capitalisation. That is not base mkt cap. Chk my equation..

I'm not confused, I'm pretty sure the Base Market Capitalisation is at CSE is related to 1985.

Opening base market capitalisation was calculated then by adding all the market days Capitalisation and divided by the number of market days.

Easy way to understand take 11/09/2012 market capitalisation and then take 12/09/2012 and do the calculation. (Why? GSF was introduced on that day)

Antonym wrote:@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

Yes and no on your quote.

Antonym wrote:@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

Yes, That I know. But for this question I am pretty sure Sriranga's reply was due to confusion- I didn't feel he deliberately criticize me.

@ Sri ranga- again u r wrong. You failed to identify GSF share price appreciation on the listed day. So base denominator contain listed price whilst numerator include (listed price+ share price appreciation on that day). The ASPI change 12/09/2012 was due to share price appreciation of GSF and other cos- not becz of listing..

If ASPI increased on becz of GSF listing then how it became 5585 at 10.45 am on 12/sep/2012? It should have gone up to 5650 early morning. See that day mkt starting ASI- it was nearly 5590 which was previous day close. No improvement at all.

Jana1 wrote:

Antonym wrote:@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

Yes, That I know. But for this question I am pretty sure Sriranga's reply was due to confusion- I didn't feel he deliberately criticize me.

@ Sri ranga- again u r wrong. You failed to identify GSF share price appreciation on the listed day. So base denominator contain listed price whilst numerator include (listed price+ share price appreciation on that day). The ASPI change 12/09/2012 was due to share price appreciation of GSF and other cos- not becz of listing..

If ASPI increased on becz of GSF listing then how it became 5585 at 10.45 am on 12/sep/2012? It should have gone up to 5650 early morning. See that day mkt starting ASI- it was nearly 5590 which was previous day close. No improvement at all.

I'm not confused or do not want to confuse anyone.
I'm 100% sure what I mentioned.
Do the calculation with the VWAP on those days. ( If time permit)
Then you can find what I'm trying to say.
As Antonym mentioned, I wish to walk away without any further discussion on this topic.
Have a happy trading.

Index Profile Information for CSEALL
Sri Lanka Stock Market Colombo All-Share Index is a market capitalization weighted index of all the companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange. It covers all the traded companies during a market day. The base value is established with average market value as of the year 1985.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND

Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Redbulls wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.




Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

G wrote:

Redbulls wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.




Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

Very interesting debate going on. But in this calculation I am in dark and do not know how ASI is adjusted during new listings and de listings. But I know our guys know how to manipulate the index very well.

Logically whatever the index (Whether ASI or CPI or any other index) value should not get changed based on new introductions and removals, but on the fluctuation of the price value of the underlying items on the index, including the new item. In case of ASI the underlying stocks, including the new entrants.

So index value should not get changed on delisting’s and listings. I think ASI is compatible with this fact as we know when de listings occurred we haven't seen any drop in ASI in the past.

Redbulls wrote:

G wrote:

Redbulls wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.




Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

@Redbull - According to G post, what you said is not correct. Pls note quote " it is adjusted to eliminate the effects of capitalization changes, new listings and de-listings" unquote.

This means the denominator is adjusted as per what Jana1 and Antonym say.

The Alchemist wrote:

Redbulls wrote:

G wrote:

Redbulls wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.




Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

@Redbull - According to G post, what you said is not correct. Pls note quote " it is adjusted to eliminate the effects of capitalization changes, new listings and de-listings" unquote.

This means the denominator is adjusted as per what Jana1 and Antonym say.

Yes Alchemist, that's what I wanted to point out.

Dear Redbull, read the part which is highlighted in blue color.

(Anyway I have assumed CSE follows this standard. There was no documentation that I could find on CSE website)

G wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:

Redbulls wrote:

G wrote:

Redbulls wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.




Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

@Redbull - According to G post, what you said is not correct. Pls note quote " it is adjusted to eliminate the effects of capitalization changes, new listings and de-listings" unquote.

This means the denominator is adjusted as per what Jana1 and Antonym say.

Yes Alchemist, that's what I wanted to point out.

Dear Redbull, read the part which is highlighted in blue color.

(Anyway I have assumed CSE follows this standard. There was no documentation that I could find on CSE website)

High lighted area is not related to the denominator that will suit for the numerator.
Numerator of the equation will change with listing or delisting and price variation.
Denominator is fixed and it is calculated with the average Market cap of 1985. ( around 110 companies at that time)

Could anyone give some examples that denominator is changing for each and every listing or delisting at CSE?

Take a calculator and do the calculation for ASPI change and Mar.Cap change, you will find the same result, that means the denominator is constant.

RB you are wrong and Jana1,Antonym,G,and The Alchemist are correct.

Base Market capitalisation is change due to Bonus, Rights, Listing, Delisting even in heavy dividend payout.
As a trader / Investor I accept my mistake on my previous comments made. Sincerely thanking all of you to open my eyes and educate on this issue.

My sincere apologies to all, regarding previous comments made by me.

Thanking you all in anticipation to accept my apology.

I hope may be the following method CSE is all so using. I sent an request to CSE and waiting for their clarification.


Again thanks you all and have a happy New year.

An introduction to stock market indices

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6880-an-introduction-to-stock-market-indices

Does the All Share Price Index represent the Colombo Stock Market ?

Mallika Appuhamilage K. SRIYALATHA*

http://202.11.2.113/SEBM/ronso/no9_3/07_SRIYALATHA.pdf

The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns in Sri Lanka

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1395016

http://korea.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=750066083101069097073067088118103076007056010023061049023084013108095108006126000111041119107107108043037095093120122101116091060086008008061123024083119086027075090084003017080068008080082026005086122&EXT=pdf

Empirical Investigation of Price Variability Mechanism of the Colombo All Share Price Index

http://www.kln.ac.lk/fcms/ICBI2012/images/ICBM/dccs/FIN005.pdf

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL STATISTICS Of SRI LANKA 2012

http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/10_pub/_docs/statistics/other/econ_&_ss_2012.pdf

Page 96 or 103

Stocks, Bills and Inflation in Sri Lanka

http://korea.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=091071099092096102105100073095099068104013035023062021010029121088025100126066012093097030102106046016114118084028090090119028126034089078012112083089111125122027048014002003127066019016126025028084014&EXT=pdf

Anyone need more Empirical evidence about base year calculation

CSE.SAS wrote:Anyone need more Empirical evidence about base year calculation

None of ur threat contain how ASPI base year was calculated. Only one journal explain the formula which is available in CSE website.Have u read those befr u published here? Most looks irrelevant..

Jana1 wrote:

CSE.SAS wrote:Anyone need more Empirical evidence about base year calculation

None of ur threat contain how ASPI base year was calculated. Only one journal explain the formula which is available in CSE website.Have u read those befr u published here? Most looks irrelevant..

All Share Price Index (ASPI)

It is a value-weighted price index, which incorporates all the voting ordinary shares listed on the CSE. The base year is 1985, and the base value of the index is 100. ASPI showed 7,811.82 points as its highest value on 14th February 2011. Current ASPI value is the broadest and the longest measure of the level of the Sri Lankan stock market. 259 companies are currently listed on the CSE, representing twenty (20) business sectors with a market capitalization of Rs. 2,355. Billion as at 5th July 2011.

As explained above the ASPI is a value weighted index based on market capitalization where the weight of any company is taken as the number of ordinary shares listed in the market. This weighting system allows the price movements of larger companies to have a greater impact on the index. Such a weighting system was adopted on the assumption that the general economic situation has a greater influence on larger companies than on smaller ones.

The ASPI indicates the price fluctuations of shares of all the listed companies and covers all the traded shares of companies during a market day. The ASPI is calculated using the following formula;

Base values are established with average market value on year 1985. Hence the base year becomes 1985.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6880-an-introduction-to-stock-market-indices

Jana1 wrote:

CSE.SAS wrote:Anyone need more Empirical evidence about base year calculation

None of ur threat contain how ASPI base year was calculated. Only one journal explain the formula which is available in CSE website.Have u read those befr u published here? Most looks irrelevant..

Does the All Share Price Index represent the Colombo Stock Market ? (Read Pg-11)

http://202.11.2.113/SEBM/ronso/no9_3/07_SRIYALATHA.pdf

CSE.SAS wrote:

Jana1 wrote:

CSE.SAS wrote:Anyone need more Empirical evidence about base year calculation

None of ur threat contain how ASPI base year was calculated. Only one journal explain the formula which is available in CSE website.Have u read those befr u published here? Most looks irrelevant..

Does the All Share Price Index represent the Colombo Stock Market ? (Read Pg-11)

http://202.11.2.113/SEBM/ronso/no9_3/07_SRIYALATHA.pdf

I think u didn't properly understand the issue here. The page-11 formula already avail at CSE website. Not need any journal ref. for that. Pls read the initial issues which Anotym, Sri ranga and myself discussed. Sri ranga suppose to publish the CSE response but still he hasn't received, I guess.

CSE.SEE wrote:

Jana1 wrote:

CSE.SAS wrote:Anyone need more Empirical evidence about base year calculation

None of ur threat contain how ASPI base year was calculated. Only one journal explain the formula which is available in CSE website.Have u read those befr u published here? Most looks irrelevant..

All Share Price Index (ASPI)

It is a value-weighted price index, which incorporates all the voting ordinary shares listed on the CSE. The base year is 1985, and the base value of the index is 100. ASPI showed 7,811.82 points as its highest value on 14th February 2011. Current ASPI value is the broadest and the longest measure of the level of the Sri Lankan stock market. 259 companies are currently listed on the CSE, representing twenty (20) business sectors with a market capitalization of Rs. 2,355. Billion as at 5th July 2011.

As explained above the ASPI is a value weighted index based on market capitalization where the weight of any company is taken as the number of ordinary shares listed in the market. This weighting system allows the price movements of larger companies to have a greater impact on the index. Such a weighting system was adopted on the assumption that the general economic situation has a greater influence on larger companies than on smaller ones.

The ASPI indicates the price fluctuations of shares of all the listed companies and covers all the traded shares of companies during a market day. The ASPI is calculated using the following formula;

Base values are established with average market value on year 1985. Hence the base year becomes 1985.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6880-an-introduction-to-stock-market-indices

These are vague statements. Go and read all threats and understand how ASPI really works rather than simply assuming 1985 base year. That s totally false..There are more things inside..

It is a Possibility now. Lets not be over optimistic. Few more days left to pick some good shares. I am looking for a good hotel sector share. Everything is over priced.

KHL

You seems to have animal ins-tics..

Qubit u confident on shl