PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC (GLAS.N0000)

geesura wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:If the price band is removed, i think it might even reach Rs.10 levels within the day. Huge buying pressure for 23Mn where selling pressure is only 3Mn.

but most of the buying orders are below 7.5?

It won’t come down to that level. Traders are having a good time. They are in a hurry to sell. That is why share price is getting stuck at Rs.8.70. Otherwise this would have moved beyond that.
This is analyzed purely based on trading pattern.

consecutive 3rd-day huge collection, everyday collections are increasing. now ready to the next level.
today,
GLAS is the most active share and one of a higher turnover of 569 Mn contributes to ASPI.

Eranga87 wrote:consecutive 3rd-day huge collection, everyday collections are increasing. now ready to the next level.
today,
GLAS is the most active share and one of a higher turnover of 569 Mn contributes to ASPI.

collection?.....without selling?..how?

geesura wrote:

Eranga87 wrote:consecutive 3rd-day huge collection, everyday collections are increasing. now ready to the next level.
today,
GLAS is the most active share and one of a higher turnover of 569 Mn contributes to ASPI.

collection?.....without selling?..how?

Yes.  collection is due to buying sentimental. price up Rs.1.80, 26%.

you can realize everything within a few weeks.

<<<<>>>>

@geesura,
today, GLAS traded 66Mn shares(turnover Rs.569Mn). do you know the reasons for that? why people bought at this level. they know the real value of GLAS. You can see GLAS prices within a few weeks.

<<<<>>>>

target price by a leading broker firm is 16+.  you can understand it is correct if you carefully analyze the value of the deal to be announced soon.

What will be tomorrow's first price Band ?
11.80?

@MasterD,
 agreed.

everyone clearly knows the potential value of GLAS. has so many positive sentiments. big fish now collect at this point. now again ready to next level beyond Rs.15. Today, most of the penny stock prices came down, because they came to capture GLAS.

Eranga87 wrote:@MasterD,
 agreed.

everyone clearly knows the potential value of GLAS. has so many positive sentiments. big fish now collect at this point. now again ready to next level beyond Rs.15. Today, most of the penny stock prices came down, because they came to capture GLAS.

At 8.80 collected lot of shares,they are not in selling side,will it finish tomorrow?or continue in next week too??

pra4u wrote:What will be tomorrow's first price Band ?
11.80?

@Eranga87

what is first max price band? for tomorrow morning

pra4u wrote:What will be tomorrow's first price Band ?
11.80?

From what i know previous day closing price +24%

Hence, Rs.8.80*1.24% = Rs.10.90

Valuation Analysis of the deal  ( This is My own work -  pls comment if you have feedback)

Piramal GLASS is to be sold at 900MN to 1Billion USD. Lets consider the worst case. 900 Million.

Two ways to value the SL operation
 1.  Production capacity based allocation on the deal price
 2.  Turnover based valuation (  figures available in financial reports of Piramal group India) 

1. Production capacity based allocation

 Piramal has four plants and to decoration centers. can process 1475 tons a day as a group.
SL operation has 300 tons per day capacity.  Thats 20% of total capacity ( assumed all factories utilized at the percentage capacity allocation).

Sale value = 900 Million USD
20% sale value =  180 million USD =  32.4 billion LKR

No of Shares of GLAS=  1 billion

Thats leads up to a value of 32.4 per share as per this deal. (  best case valuation )


2.  Turnover based valuation

2020/19 turnover for the GLASS operation of Piramal =  357 Million USD (  source: 
https://www.piramalglass.com/piramal-glass-announces-inr-300-crores-us42-million-investment-towards-expansion-of-its-jambusar-plant-in-gujarat-india/ )

Valuation of the deal =  900 Million USD
Valuation ratio =  900/357 =  2.5 times turnover

GLAS N.000 turnover for 19/20 year =  7 billion LKR
valuation as per above ratio = 7*2.5=  17.5 Billion LKR

Price per share =  17.5 Billion LKR /  1 billion shares =  17.5 LKR per share


This valuation goes to 17.5 LKR per share.  (  which is the worst case valuation)




Broker firms now recommends this will be 16+ bcz of the deal. 
Please let me know your thoughts

Bish2020 wrote:Sorry for asking this, But I'm a beginner to trading and new to this field, can you please explain Simply how shareholders benefits from above your calculation( Deal)?  Thank you

There are multiple ways to value a company. 
In this case value has already been set 900Million, we just want to know how they would have valued SL operation proportionately.

Two ways to do that,  consider how much of share of capacity is available in SL production unit and Revenue share. Thats what I have done.

So since we now have a derived a value ( 17.5 worst case), compared to current market price which is 8.8 company is under valued and buy decision is justified.

When the acquisition deal is announced, buyer will make a mandatory offer which is at the same price they used to value the company for the deal. there is a huge probability that it could be close around 15-16 per share.

Master D wrote:

Bish2020 wrote:Sorry for asking this, But I'm a beginner to trading and new to this field, can you please explain Simply how shareholders benefits from above your calculation( Deal)?  Thank you

There are multiple ways to value a company. 
In this case value has already been set 900Million, we just want to know how they would have valued SL operation proportionately.

Two ways to do that,  consider how much of share of capacity is available in SL production unit and Revenue share. Thats what I have done.

So since we now have a derived a value ( 17.5 worst case), compared to current market price which is 8.8 company is under valued and buy decision is justified.

When the acquisition deal is announced, buyer will make a mandatory offer which is at the same price they used to value the company for the deal. there is a huge probability that it could be close around 15-16 per share.

Does anyone have any idea when we could expect this announcement ? I am trying to reach out to collect some information but still couldn’t get any from a reliable source.

Eranga87 wrote:Deal is in final round, set to name winner as soon as October







https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/blackstone-partners-group-said-in-race-to-buy-piramal-glass

Thank you @Eranga87

Another article from Economic Times.
https://www.vccircle.com/grapevine-petronas-eyes-stake-in-tata-power-units-piramal-glass-biz-draws-more-suitors/

This one about Global Market Trend and it talks about Asian Market (Piramal Glass)

*Published today* - 14th October 2020 (Think from a US paper)

https://prnewsleader.com/uncategorized/389531/glass-bottles-and-containers-market-research-by-2020-top-countries-data-key-players-industry-revenue-demand-status-and-investments-plans-forecast-to-2024/

Mithooshan wrote:

pra4u wrote:What will be tomorrow's first price Band ?
11.80?

From what i know previous day closing price +24%

Hence, Rs.8.80*1.24% = Rs.10.90

oh ok i thought highest prices  + 24%

Thank you very much

pra4u wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:

pra4u wrote:What will be tomorrow's first price Band ?
11.80?

From what i know previous day closing price +24%

Hence, Rs.8.80*1.24% = Rs.10.90

oh ok i thought highest prices  + 24%

Thank you very much

+ 25%, Rs.11.00

Eranga87 wrote:

pra4u wrote:

Mithooshan wrote:

pra4u wrote:What will be tomorrow's first price Band ?
11.80?

From what i know previous day closing price +24%

Hence, Rs.8.80*1.24% = Rs.10.90

oh ok i thought highest prices  + 24%

Thank you very much

+ 25%, Rs.11.00

This is shared by Asia Securities:

*This does not consider any impact to share price from the Sale of business*

June
https://www.theequitycheck.com/filedata/fetch?id=31787

October
https://www.theequitycheck.com/filedata/fetch?id=38819

@Mithooshan,

this research team's inability tell exactly target price of any shares.  they times to times change thier target price (TP) within short period. example. TOKYO, GLAS,DIPD,HAYC,EXPO, ALUM,MGT, etc. so many shares have like this. i think you know this very well.

they cant tell anythings and didnt do any reserch, until publish compnies financial. after the price went up , they realesed reserch report.  they unable to analyze impact of policy changes and market development etc. before, share price wentup , reserch paper not publised. after price goes up reserch paper publised and several times target price. i dont trust such of reserch team outcome.  when we get 5 reserch firm, they tell 5 different things for same thing.

Eranga87 wrote:@Mithooshan,

this research team's inability tell exactly target price of any shares.  they times to times change thier target price (TP) within short period. example. TOKYO, GLAS,DIPD,HAYC,EXPO, ALUM,MGT, etc. so many shares have like this. i think you know this very well.

they cant tell anythings and didnt do any reserch, until publish compnies financial. after the price went up , they realesed reserch report.  they unable to analyze impact of policy changes and market development etc. before, share price wentup , reserch paper not publised. after price goes up reserch paper publised and several times target price. i dont trust such of reserch team outcome.  when we get 5 reserch firm, they tell 5 different things for same thing.

i also agree with u , there is a such a scenario.i think some of shares mentioned above have over valued now.

foreign selling is almost finished. 27Mn foreign sellings absorbed by local retailers, institution and govt. fund (ETF).

suku502 wrote:

Eranga87 wrote:@Mithooshan,

this research team's inability tell exactly target price of any shares.  they times to times change thier target price (TP) within short period. example. TOKYO, GLAS,DIPD,HAYC,EXPO, ALUM,MGT, etc. so many shares have like this. i think you know this very well.

they cant tell anythings and didnt do any reserch, until publish compnies financial. after the price went up , they realesed reserch report.  they unable to analyze impact of policy changes and market development etc. before, share price wentup , reserch paper not publised. after price goes up reserch paper publised and several times target price. i dont trust such of reserch team outcome.  when we get 5 reserch firm, they tell 5 different things for same thing.

i also agree with u , there is a such a scenario.i think some of shares mentioned above have over valued now.

yes @suku502,

i explained to that research team some earlier anaysis.

Why it's going down today?

Bish2020 wrote:Why it's going down today?

I think most of one tended to others with a speculation purpose

someone big quantity keep on the selling side and try to collect a lower level.

wait till 12.30

within 1 month, it will trade beyond Rs.15 level

Eranga87 wrote:within 1 month, it will trade beyond Rs.15 level

Piramal Glass business sale is confirmed and very soon a new buyer will be announced. How would this announcement affect GLAS shares? If the buyer decides to de-list, how much will be paid to the shareholder? Can you please advise.